rus
Issue #7/2017
V.Uzlov
"Deadman" or "team of tomorrow", it’s time to determine who you are in today’s market!
"Deadman" or "team of tomorrow", it’s time to determine who you are in today’s market!
With the new format of organization of production of electronic components, ADGEX offers fundamentally new opportunities from the small batch production of microcircuits to the turnkey delivery of technologies.
Victor Uzlov, Chairman & Managing Director at ADGEX
Virtually any idea that was successful in the 20th century, already makes no sense in the 21st. Today, to start any new business, you need to ask yourself if there will be a place for your product or service in the future. Traditional industries will undergo radical changes in the next 5–10 years, because the world has already changed and become different!
Today it does not matter who you are, how great your company is and what segment of the market it occupies. It is important what you plan to do... And even more correct statement of the question: "What have you already done for today?" Exactly, and only in the past tense, as a fact that has already happened in the life of your enterprise. So, what innovations have you already implemented? Answer honestly to yourself this question, because if you have not done anything in the field of innovation in the past two or three years, then from the point of view of marketing of the future market, you are already a "deadman", no matter how sad it sounded. The question is only in terms! Why will this happen?! Because if you do not recognize new trends and technological innovations, and do not create them yourself, get ready, you will soon be "taken out" from the market.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees, and it sold 85% of all photographic paper in the world.
Within just a few years, their business model has lost relevance, and Kodak went bankrupt, although it seemed that people would always print photos. The reason for this was the emergence of digital technology, which Kodak overlooked. Another example is Nokia, which in 2010 owned 80% of the global mobile phone market, and it seemed that nothing boded problems. However, not seeing the future in smartphones, the company not only missed another "technological evolutionary product," but left the market forever in 2014. Another example can be cited from the field of automotive industry, where Tesla, with a new approach to independent power supply of cars is crowding the world's auto giants, whose positions on the "market Olympus" seemed to be unshakable and eternal. And there are hundreds of such examples in today's market.
Artificial intelligence, unmanned electric vehicles, alternative energy sources and its storage are not the future, this is what is happening already here and now. The words "decade", or even "five-year period" no longer correspond to the time frame for the development of technologies. Global changes are taking place around us. Over the next few years, the world in which we live, as a result of technological progress will irreversibly change even more. New technologies, of which no one had heard yesterday, will promptly supersede the old "obsolete" solutions. The latest explosive technological growth that humanity has received through innovations in the field of microelectronics and nanotechnology has brought digital technologies, computers, smartphones, mobile communications, the Internet, and even social networks to the world. But this story has already reached the stage of "saturation"! And what new innovative approaches will shape our "technological tomorrow" depends only on ourselves. The key to the sustainable development of your company in the future are just two principles: permanent diversification of the portfolio of innovative solutions that you are making today, and the introduction of new, I would even say, "newest" developments in field of nanotechnology in the future.
The world has changed, on the one hand it has become global, on the other hand it is more individual, where against the background of globalization your ideas are explosive, and, like the formation of the universe from emptiness, they also create "unprecedented" solutions. Only "individuality" is able by nature to create a new breakthrough technology, and for the survival and evolution of your business, you must constantly carry out individual developments in the field of electronics, nano- and biotechnology. But for the purposes of continuous development and innovation, engineers and designers in the electronics industry need new components, and they are required, more often than not, in the number of several pieces or a limited batch, and, as a rule, in the shortest possible time. Only such an approach is capable of providing "innovators" with true mobility. However, the harsh reality of the modern electronics market dictates other rules.
TRIUMPH OR APOGEE OF MARKET
OF MODERN ELECTRONICS?
The world electronic industry arose less than a century ago and radically changed the modern life of man. Already almost 50 years, it is rapidly moving along the path of improving solid-state semiconductor devices. But to date, the exponential growth trend has slowed down considerably and has reached the stage of "re-profiling production." The main players are known, the price of the entrance ticket to the production niche of modern electronics exceeds $10 billion (the markets are divided, nanometers are passed, the substrates are comparable in size to a small coffee table, etc.). Mega-fabs are forced to wage a tough competitive struggle in the global market. The game goes on a knockout!
Leading experts predict that in the world in a few years there will be no more than six semiconductor mega-fabs. The development of electronics in accordance with Moore's law led to the situation when companies of the IDM format (integrated device manufacture, the business model in which the company develops, manufactures and sells finished products) were forced to optimize their business processes and specialize either in design (design center, fables-company), or in the production of chips (foundry), including enterprises aimed at the implementation of only third-party orders (pure-play foundry).
Let's look at the "Moore's Law" in terms of marketing, as this is definitely not a "law of technology development". In a more general sense, this is an open market law, where, as you know, there must always be leaders. Exceptions from the whole list of players in the electronics market are the world's super-mega-manufacturers (Intel, Samsung, AMD, TSMC). In my opinion, this dependence should be positioned not as a "law of market differentiation," but as a "law of marketing domination". The creator of Intel, Gordon Moore is undoubtedly a genius manager of modern times. Providing a clause in the contracts, which linked the personal bonuses of top managers with doubling the number of transistors in the chip every two years, Moore created an economic mechanism for the "artificial selection" on the electronics market, which was confirmed by time. Today hundreds or even thousands of companies are forced to settle for the remaining 30% (or less) of the world market.
However, the marketing superiority of mega-manufacturers has led to structural distortions in the distribution of ready-made chips to end-users. In today's global electronics market, there is a situation where small and even medium-sized companies can not order a small batch of chips for their promising products. Mega-fabs are no longer interested in small orders, they produce the same type of microcircuit in millions of copies for large manufacturers. They simply do not have the time and capacity to manufacture small batches. The price of developing and launching in production each new chip exceeds all conceivable limits. For example, the cost of developing and manufacturing masks for a modern chip can exceed $100 million. Such expenses can be recouped only by millions of sales.
"INDIVIDUALIZATION" –
A VECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT OF CONSUMER ELECTRONICS MARKET
According to the forecast of the Gartner (www.gartner.com), the semiconductor market in 2017 in monetary terms will reach $364.1 billion. This figure corresponds to an increase of 7.2% compared to 2016. According to the Future Market Insights report (www.futuremarketinsights.com), the annual growth rate in the civil electronics segment is twice as high and until 2020 the industry will grow by 15.4% per year reaching almost $3 trillion ($2.976 billion). But let's ask ourselves, who will get this market? Will mega-fabs continue to dictate their rules to the buyer? How will the consumer market develop, when there is simply no modern electronic "filling" for new specialized devices and devices produced in small runs (from piece production to a few tens of thousands of pieces)? Moreover, the needs of this sector, according to leading analysts, already exceeds 50% of the world's electronics market.
Creating custom chips is a complex and very expensive process, which prevents the release of new modern gadgets by small and medium-sized innovative companies. But the "breakthrough" product is created precisely by start-ups. The electronics market is rapidly developing, and it is very important for the manufacturer not to miss the opportunity to take his place on it. However, the implementation of intelligent systems dictates the need for even greater specialization, with the provision of the user interface as user friendly as possible, and, especially, the higher performance of the chips. Semicustom ICs, such as FPGAs or ULAs, can not solve this problem due to their redundancy, complexity of debugging and increased power consumption. But the trend towards the creation and use of full-featured SiP (System-in-Package) and SoC (System-on-Chip) devices, according to experts of ADGEX, will only increase.
The situation in the field of manufacturing semiconductor devices, as well as the high cost of the latter, progressive forced market participants to seek new solutions, first of all, to change the format of foundries. For the most part, such solutions are aimed at reducing the cost of production itself by reducing the size of the processed wafer. Obviously, the decrease in the diameter of the wafer will reduce equivalent performance and some increase processing cost per unit area of the wafer. However, such solutions are indispensable for small-scale production, manufacture of laboratory samples and prototypes.
In our opinion, the undisputed world's favorite in the field of minimizing of foundry are Japanese developers of Minimal Fab complexes. At the AIST (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), under the leadership of Dr. Shiro Hara, the Group Leader Minimal System Group Nanoelectronics Research Institute, the Association of Developers has been formed, which brings together more than 200 leading Japanese semiconductor companies. Over the past 20 years, Japanese scientists have developed revolutionary compact lines, consisting of mobile Minimal Fab units, which are specifically targeted at the production of various types of chips in small quantities. The use of 0.5-inch wafers that meet the requirements for the size of most ICs and semiconductor devices has ensured the compactness of process units that are only 30 cm wide. Transporting wafers in sealed Minimal Shuttle containers eliminates the need for cleanrooms and the cost of maintaining them.
The cost of a line of a new revolutionary format, in comparison with mega-fabs, may be lower by more than 1000 times. Lower capital costs, shorter production cycles and increased efficiency in the case of using compact lines are obvious. These factors are the key to an undeniable competitive advantage over traditional mega-fabs.
AIDL - A NEW FORMAT FOR "INDIVIDUAL" MICROELECTRONICS
The ADGEX approached the creation of its own business model in a philosophical way. In the civilized west, it is argued that the product is born in the field, in the laboratory, in the production, but everything else is "redistribution", that is, they profess a bare market approach. In the east, it is believed that the success of business largely depends on the quality of service and the complexity of the solution of the problem, in other words, the success of any business is related to the human factor and the individual approach. The ADGEX team initially set the task to combine both these approaches to create a comprehensive and universal solution for mastering the rapidly growing consumer electronics market. Our business model has undergone changes over more than 20 years – from the stage of the "idea" to the complex market ideology, in which the production and service approaches are closely intertwined. As a result, for the market implementation of our model, approximately an year ago the independent division of the company, named VITIM, was officially created.
ADGEX VITIM has developed and built a new technological format for electronics, AIDL (Agile Integrated Device Laboratory). This is the concept of mobile and flexible microelectronic production at the laboratory level. The uniqueness and novelty of this approach lies in the fact that we have divided all the key intellectual and production chains of modern electronics into key stages. At the same time, all the technological production cycles were reengineered, which enabled to minimize each of the stages into the format of a separate mini-production. The AIDL model is the integration of the engineering intelligent center and all the key mini-manufactures of modern electronics "under the roof" of one laboratory. Such, I would say "historical", technological approach allowed ADGEX VITIM to evolve from the traditional manufacture format to the size of laboratory.
As noted above, ADGEX VITIM has implemented two behavioral strategies in its relationships with key customers. The production strategy is implemented in the field of mobile manufacturing of single chips and individual production of microchips. The service strategy is aimed at an individual approach to customers and is focused, first of all, on such a key competitive indicator as the time from the receipt of the order to the supply of the finished chip or IP module to our customer. Both strategies are equivalent and ADGEX VITIM initially professes only a comprehensive approach to the implementation of the AIDL format in the consumer electronics market.
The production laboratory of ADGEX VITIM includes its own design center, small-scale production based on Japanese equipment Minimal Fab, the area of manufacturing of "ideal" chips and a testing laboratory.
I would like to especially thank our Japanese strategic partners, the TOKIO-BOEKI and YOKOGAWA. Today, ADGEX is the first company in the world to sign a contract for the supply of Minimal Fab complexes. Thanks to them, ADGEX VITIM was able to close the intellectual and industrial chain of the AIDL format.
The business model of ADGEX VITIM provides the following market solutions:
supply of processed chips and semiconductor substrates to the consumer market;
intelligent engineering for the development of IP-modules;
individual orders of consumers (production of any batch of chips);
manufacturing of own innovative electronic devices (for example, cathodoluminescent lamps with controlled brightness of luminescence and a terahertz transceiver for Internet of things);
distribution of equipment and technologies "on a turnkey basis". Development of complex solutions for the organization of AIDL-productions in accordance with the customer requirements, the turnkey supply of small-scale production lines on the basis of Minimal Fab equipment, the supply of consumables and the organization of waste management.
ADGEX VITIM gives its customers freedom of choice in solving their technological problems "on a turnkey basis". From now on, any batch of chip and configuration of any complexity can be and will be manufactured according to an individual order in a matter of days. The mobility of ADGEX VITIM is the guarantee of the future technological breakthrough of our partners! ■
Virtually any idea that was successful in the 20th century, already makes no sense in the 21st. Today, to start any new business, you need to ask yourself if there will be a place for your product or service in the future. Traditional industries will undergo radical changes in the next 5–10 years, because the world has already changed and become different!
Today it does not matter who you are, how great your company is and what segment of the market it occupies. It is important what you plan to do... And even more correct statement of the question: "What have you already done for today?" Exactly, and only in the past tense, as a fact that has already happened in the life of your enterprise. So, what innovations have you already implemented? Answer honestly to yourself this question, because if you have not done anything in the field of innovation in the past two or three years, then from the point of view of marketing of the future market, you are already a "deadman", no matter how sad it sounded. The question is only in terms! Why will this happen?! Because if you do not recognize new trends and technological innovations, and do not create them yourself, get ready, you will soon be "taken out" from the market.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees, and it sold 85% of all photographic paper in the world.
Within just a few years, their business model has lost relevance, and Kodak went bankrupt, although it seemed that people would always print photos. The reason for this was the emergence of digital technology, which Kodak overlooked. Another example is Nokia, which in 2010 owned 80% of the global mobile phone market, and it seemed that nothing boded problems. However, not seeing the future in smartphones, the company not only missed another "technological evolutionary product," but left the market forever in 2014. Another example can be cited from the field of automotive industry, where Tesla, with a new approach to independent power supply of cars is crowding the world's auto giants, whose positions on the "market Olympus" seemed to be unshakable and eternal. And there are hundreds of such examples in today's market.
Artificial intelligence, unmanned electric vehicles, alternative energy sources and its storage are not the future, this is what is happening already here and now. The words "decade", or even "five-year period" no longer correspond to the time frame for the development of technologies. Global changes are taking place around us. Over the next few years, the world in which we live, as a result of technological progress will irreversibly change even more. New technologies, of which no one had heard yesterday, will promptly supersede the old "obsolete" solutions. The latest explosive technological growth that humanity has received through innovations in the field of microelectronics and nanotechnology has brought digital technologies, computers, smartphones, mobile communications, the Internet, and even social networks to the world. But this story has already reached the stage of "saturation"! And what new innovative approaches will shape our "technological tomorrow" depends only on ourselves. The key to the sustainable development of your company in the future are just two principles: permanent diversification of the portfolio of innovative solutions that you are making today, and the introduction of new, I would even say, "newest" developments in field of nanotechnology in the future.
The world has changed, on the one hand it has become global, on the other hand it is more individual, where against the background of globalization your ideas are explosive, and, like the formation of the universe from emptiness, they also create "unprecedented" solutions. Only "individuality" is able by nature to create a new breakthrough technology, and for the survival and evolution of your business, you must constantly carry out individual developments in the field of electronics, nano- and biotechnology. But for the purposes of continuous development and innovation, engineers and designers in the electronics industry need new components, and they are required, more often than not, in the number of several pieces or a limited batch, and, as a rule, in the shortest possible time. Only such an approach is capable of providing "innovators" with true mobility. However, the harsh reality of the modern electronics market dictates other rules.
TRIUMPH OR APOGEE OF MARKET
OF MODERN ELECTRONICS?
The world electronic industry arose less than a century ago and radically changed the modern life of man. Already almost 50 years, it is rapidly moving along the path of improving solid-state semiconductor devices. But to date, the exponential growth trend has slowed down considerably and has reached the stage of "re-profiling production." The main players are known, the price of the entrance ticket to the production niche of modern electronics exceeds $10 billion (the markets are divided, nanometers are passed, the substrates are comparable in size to a small coffee table, etc.). Mega-fabs are forced to wage a tough competitive struggle in the global market. The game goes on a knockout!
Leading experts predict that in the world in a few years there will be no more than six semiconductor mega-fabs. The development of electronics in accordance with Moore's law led to the situation when companies of the IDM format (integrated device manufacture, the business model in which the company develops, manufactures and sells finished products) were forced to optimize their business processes and specialize either in design (design center, fables-company), or in the production of chips (foundry), including enterprises aimed at the implementation of only third-party orders (pure-play foundry).
Let's look at the "Moore's Law" in terms of marketing, as this is definitely not a "law of technology development". In a more general sense, this is an open market law, where, as you know, there must always be leaders. Exceptions from the whole list of players in the electronics market are the world's super-mega-manufacturers (Intel, Samsung, AMD, TSMC). In my opinion, this dependence should be positioned not as a "law of market differentiation," but as a "law of marketing domination". The creator of Intel, Gordon Moore is undoubtedly a genius manager of modern times. Providing a clause in the contracts, which linked the personal bonuses of top managers with doubling the number of transistors in the chip every two years, Moore created an economic mechanism for the "artificial selection" on the electronics market, which was confirmed by time. Today hundreds or even thousands of companies are forced to settle for the remaining 30% (or less) of the world market.
However, the marketing superiority of mega-manufacturers has led to structural distortions in the distribution of ready-made chips to end-users. In today's global electronics market, there is a situation where small and even medium-sized companies can not order a small batch of chips for their promising products. Mega-fabs are no longer interested in small orders, they produce the same type of microcircuit in millions of copies for large manufacturers. They simply do not have the time and capacity to manufacture small batches. The price of developing and launching in production each new chip exceeds all conceivable limits. For example, the cost of developing and manufacturing masks for a modern chip can exceed $100 million. Such expenses can be recouped only by millions of sales.
"INDIVIDUALIZATION" –
A VECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT OF CONSUMER ELECTRONICS MARKET
According to the forecast of the Gartner (www.gartner.com), the semiconductor market in 2017 in monetary terms will reach $364.1 billion. This figure corresponds to an increase of 7.2% compared to 2016. According to the Future Market Insights report (www.futuremarketinsights.com), the annual growth rate in the civil electronics segment is twice as high and until 2020 the industry will grow by 15.4% per year reaching almost $3 trillion ($2.976 billion). But let's ask ourselves, who will get this market? Will mega-fabs continue to dictate their rules to the buyer? How will the consumer market develop, when there is simply no modern electronic "filling" for new specialized devices and devices produced in small runs (from piece production to a few tens of thousands of pieces)? Moreover, the needs of this sector, according to leading analysts, already exceeds 50% of the world's electronics market.
Creating custom chips is a complex and very expensive process, which prevents the release of new modern gadgets by small and medium-sized innovative companies. But the "breakthrough" product is created precisely by start-ups. The electronics market is rapidly developing, and it is very important for the manufacturer not to miss the opportunity to take his place on it. However, the implementation of intelligent systems dictates the need for even greater specialization, with the provision of the user interface as user friendly as possible, and, especially, the higher performance of the chips. Semicustom ICs, such as FPGAs or ULAs, can not solve this problem due to their redundancy, complexity of debugging and increased power consumption. But the trend towards the creation and use of full-featured SiP (System-in-Package) and SoC (System-on-Chip) devices, according to experts of ADGEX, will only increase.
The situation in the field of manufacturing semiconductor devices, as well as the high cost of the latter, progressive forced market participants to seek new solutions, first of all, to change the format of foundries. For the most part, such solutions are aimed at reducing the cost of production itself by reducing the size of the processed wafer. Obviously, the decrease in the diameter of the wafer will reduce equivalent performance and some increase processing cost per unit area of the wafer. However, such solutions are indispensable for small-scale production, manufacture of laboratory samples and prototypes.
In our opinion, the undisputed world's favorite in the field of minimizing of foundry are Japanese developers of Minimal Fab complexes. At the AIST (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), under the leadership of Dr. Shiro Hara, the Group Leader Minimal System Group Nanoelectronics Research Institute, the Association of Developers has been formed, which brings together more than 200 leading Japanese semiconductor companies. Over the past 20 years, Japanese scientists have developed revolutionary compact lines, consisting of mobile Minimal Fab units, which are specifically targeted at the production of various types of chips in small quantities. The use of 0.5-inch wafers that meet the requirements for the size of most ICs and semiconductor devices has ensured the compactness of process units that are only 30 cm wide. Transporting wafers in sealed Minimal Shuttle containers eliminates the need for cleanrooms and the cost of maintaining them.
The cost of a line of a new revolutionary format, in comparison with mega-fabs, may be lower by more than 1000 times. Lower capital costs, shorter production cycles and increased efficiency in the case of using compact lines are obvious. These factors are the key to an undeniable competitive advantage over traditional mega-fabs.
AIDL - A NEW FORMAT FOR "INDIVIDUAL" MICROELECTRONICS
The ADGEX approached the creation of its own business model in a philosophical way. In the civilized west, it is argued that the product is born in the field, in the laboratory, in the production, but everything else is "redistribution", that is, they profess a bare market approach. In the east, it is believed that the success of business largely depends on the quality of service and the complexity of the solution of the problem, in other words, the success of any business is related to the human factor and the individual approach. The ADGEX team initially set the task to combine both these approaches to create a comprehensive and universal solution for mastering the rapidly growing consumer electronics market. Our business model has undergone changes over more than 20 years – from the stage of the "idea" to the complex market ideology, in which the production and service approaches are closely intertwined. As a result, for the market implementation of our model, approximately an year ago the independent division of the company, named VITIM, was officially created.
ADGEX VITIM has developed and built a new technological format for electronics, AIDL (Agile Integrated Device Laboratory). This is the concept of mobile and flexible microelectronic production at the laboratory level. The uniqueness and novelty of this approach lies in the fact that we have divided all the key intellectual and production chains of modern electronics into key stages. At the same time, all the technological production cycles were reengineered, which enabled to minimize each of the stages into the format of a separate mini-production. The AIDL model is the integration of the engineering intelligent center and all the key mini-manufactures of modern electronics "under the roof" of one laboratory. Such, I would say "historical", technological approach allowed ADGEX VITIM to evolve from the traditional manufacture format to the size of laboratory.
As noted above, ADGEX VITIM has implemented two behavioral strategies in its relationships with key customers. The production strategy is implemented in the field of mobile manufacturing of single chips and individual production of microchips. The service strategy is aimed at an individual approach to customers and is focused, first of all, on such a key competitive indicator as the time from the receipt of the order to the supply of the finished chip or IP module to our customer. Both strategies are equivalent and ADGEX VITIM initially professes only a comprehensive approach to the implementation of the AIDL format in the consumer electronics market.
The production laboratory of ADGEX VITIM includes its own design center, small-scale production based on Japanese equipment Minimal Fab, the area of manufacturing of "ideal" chips and a testing laboratory.
I would like to especially thank our Japanese strategic partners, the TOKIO-BOEKI and YOKOGAWA. Today, ADGEX is the first company in the world to sign a contract for the supply of Minimal Fab complexes. Thanks to them, ADGEX VITIM was able to close the intellectual and industrial chain of the AIDL format.
The business model of ADGEX VITIM provides the following market solutions:
supply of processed chips and semiconductor substrates to the consumer market;
intelligent engineering for the development of IP-modules;
individual orders of consumers (production of any batch of chips);
manufacturing of own innovative electronic devices (for example, cathodoluminescent lamps with controlled brightness of luminescence and a terahertz transceiver for Internet of things);
distribution of equipment and technologies "on a turnkey basis". Development of complex solutions for the organization of AIDL-productions in accordance with the customer requirements, the turnkey supply of small-scale production lines on the basis of Minimal Fab equipment, the supply of consumables and the organization of waste management.
ADGEX VITIM gives its customers freedom of choice in solving their technological problems "on a turnkey basis". From now on, any batch of chip and configuration of any complexity can be and will be manufactured according to an individual order in a matter of days. The mobility of ADGEX VITIM is the guarantee of the future technological breakthrough of our partners! ■
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